CVX - Added To Long 1/29/2012 & Closed 1/31/2012

This swing trade is closed as of today, we where given a second chance.

















Add to the Feb options, as the market dropped over +100 point, and put in a rebound to take CVX down and up with it. Averaged this trade.

MON - UPDATED

Thursday, January 12, 9:57 AM Agriculture stocks open lower following the USDA's supply/demand report, which is slightly negative for grain prices due to an expected increase in global wheat and corn inventory levels. Fertilizer stocks: POT -4%, CF -3.9%, MOS -3.7%, IPI -3%, AGU -1.7%, RNF -1.2%. Seed names: MON -0.3%, SYT +0.3%. Farm equipment:AGCO -3.2%, TITN -1.7%, DE -1.5%, CNH -1.3%.

Thursday, January 5, 8:07 AM Monsanto (MON): FQ1 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.44B (+33% Y/Y) beats by $400M. Sees FY'12 EPS at higher end of $3.39-3.44. Shares +1.1% premarket.

Thursday, January 5, 5:37 AM A shortage of corn seed, production of which may have fallen 25%-50%, could hamper the 2012 planting season and bring a second year of volatility to corn prices. However, Monsanto (MON), Pioneer Hi-Bred (DD) and other large seed companies remain sanguine about supplies.

EcoNews for Jan 30 - Feb 3, 2012

CSTR - New 7 Day High

NFLX released earnings and we had a pullback into this news, but recovered nicely.

CVX - Long Swing Play

• 8:51 AM More on Chevron's (CVX) Q4: U.S. upstream earnings up 72% Y/Y to $1.61B. Downstream operations in U.S. lost $204M vs. $475 profit a year ago. Average selling price of crude oil and natural gas liquids 28% higher Y/Y to $101. Shares -1.4% premarket.

• 8:32 AM Chevron (CVX): Q4 EPS of $2.58 misses by $0.36. Revenue of $58.03B (+11.5% Y/Y) misses by $12.9B. Shares -1.1% premarket.

• Thursday 6:40 PM More problems for Chevron (CVX) in South America, as a Brazilian prosecutor says he plans to file criminal charges against the oil giant and some of its local managers within weeks, adding the threat of prison sentences to an $11B civil lawsuit as punishment for a November offshore oil spill. CVX also is contesting an $18B judgment in Ecuador.

• Thursday 11:44 AM A federal appeals court throws out an injunction that blocks the enforcement of an $18B judgement made against Chevron (CVX) in Ecuador for the spilling of chemicals into the Amazon basin. Attorneys say they will try to collect the money from Chevron in countries around the world.
  

CSTR - Update

APA - Two (2) Update

APA - 5 Day Pattern

Description

Apache Corporation (Apache) is an independent energy company, which explores for, develops and produces natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2010, it had exploration and production interests in seven countries: the United States, Canada, Egypt, Australia, offshore the United Kingdom in the North Sea, Argentina, and Chile.

• Monday, January 23, 5:15 PM Apache's (APA +1.6%) $2.85B deal for Cordillera should boost Forest Oil's (FST +8.7%) valuation, R.W. Baird says, contending that based on what APA is paying for Cordillera's daily output in Texas' Granite Wash play, FST's enterprise value should rise to $3.7B from $3B. "One could argue Forest's non-Panhandle assets are effectively free at current market valuations," Baird adds.
• Monday, January 23, 2:45 AM Apache (APA) buys privately-held oil and gas company Cordillera Energy Partners III in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $2.85B. Apache says the deal will more than double its acreage in the energy-rich Anadarko Basin.
  

EcoNews for Jan 23 - Jan 27

Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) - Mr. Saturday

Great Article, Mr. Saturday,

http://www.sanglucci.com/mr-saturday-sopa-all-magic-needs-a-diversion/

The issue slices across political persuasions - at its core support hinges on whether a company benefits from a "free" internet with loose online piracy rules. Critics of the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) claim the bill would "effectively promote censorship" and expose law-abiding Internet companies to new liabilities. To fit the ‘digital piracy’ classification, the domain needed to offer or point to one or more of the brands used in the digital content portion of the study for free. According to a report (PDF) released yesterday by MarkMonitor, a company that protects online brands for its corporate customers. There report states that The top-three websites classified as ‘digital piracy’—rapidshare.com, megavideo.com, and megaupload.com—collectively generate more than 21 billion visits per year.

Industry wide: Traffic to sites suspected of offering pirated content was over 146 million visits per day. Selling counterfeit goods, i.e. Drugs, Fashion, etc.

• Friday, January 20, 12:10 PM Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid indefinitely postpones a vote in his chamber on the PIPA online anti-piracy bill pitting Hollywood against Silicon Valley. Lamar Smith, Republican chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, follows suit, saying his panel would delay action on similar SOPA

• Thursday, January 19, 2:54 PM The AP reports that one of the world's largest file-sharing sites - Megaupload.com - was shut down by Federal authorities and company workers were indicted over charges of online piracy. In a twist of irony (or not?), the firm's CEO has been extremely active in the anti-SOPA

Winner and Losers:

Big Media:

"These golden geese are in danger of being strangled to death by video streaming," so anti-piracy talk really comes in second to stunting the growth of even legitimate online distribution. Its much to do with protecting the pipe as it does protecting the content itself.

Former Sen. Christopher Dodd takes up the case for SOPA (video) on behalf of the motion picture industry, claiming the online piracy bill will not be the "end of the Internet." He says the bill doesn't impinge on freedom of speech rights, but merely aims to end rampant online crime by foreign entities.

Corporate Companies:

Internet names are up in arms over a new piracy bill would grant law enforcement officials broad powers to shut down sites deemed by media companies to be enabling the flow of pirated content.

Public uproar:

In the face of a public uproar and acts of protest from leading Internet properties, as well as growing White House concerns, the Stop Online Privacy Act (SOPA) and Protect IP Act (PIPA) now appear to be dead in the water, at least in their current forms. Already, two of SOPA's co-sponsors are pulling their support for the legislation. Blogger "We will not support legislation that reduces freedom of expression, increases cybersecurity risk or undermines the dynamic, innovative global Internet,"

Related Companies:

Tech giants like Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Yahoo (YHOO) and eBay (EBAY). Facebook, and domain hosting firms or loses out from reproduced content along the likes of Disney (DIS), Sony (SNE), and Time Warner (TWX).

Gaming firms are caught in a quandary over their initial support over the online piracy bill Though industry players such as Nintendo (NTDOY.PK), Sony (SNE), Electronic Arts (EA), and Entertainment America are publicly siding with the "free Internet" crowd to avoid a customer backlash, privately the firms support the bill through lobbying groups aiming at preventing rogue firms from stealing IP and customers away.

Conclusion:

There's been talk of a "nuclear option" where firms including would simultaneously go dark to protest the legislation. Well, easier said than done. “Corporate Bottom Line's.” vs “Public Interest.” And yes the word placement is corporation first.

CSTR - Long Swing

Company

Coinstar, Inc. (CSTR) is a provider of automated retail solutions. Coinstar’s core offerings in automated retail include its digital video disk (DVD) business, where consumers can rent or purchase movies from self-service kiosks (DVD Services segment), and its Coin business, where consumers can convert their coin to cash or stored value products at coin-counting self-service kiosks (Coin Services segment). This company currently has a market cap of $1.47B

Coinstar, Inc. to Report 2011 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results on February 6, 2012.

Company related News:

• Thursday, January 19, 12:23 PM Contributing to Coinstar (CSTR) rally may be an NPD report claiming the share of the disc rental market rose 1200 bps in 2011, to 37%. “We believe the DVD kiosk rental opportunity will be saturated by late 2012... 68% of households are already within five-minute drive-time of a Redbox(CSTR) kiosk."

• Friday, January 6, 9:48 AM Coinstar (CSTR) slides after Morgan Keegan cuts its rating to Market Perform and its price target to $42 from $60, noting uncertainty in the DVD industry after Time Warner has strong-armed doubling their wait time period for offering new DVD releases via their rental services to 56 days, in exchange for maintaining the right to purchase DVDs from Time Warner at wholesale prices, in which it will bar Redbox (CSTR), Netflix (NFLX), and Blockbuster (DISH) from renting new releases. Shares will "remain pressured until the company provides further evidence of a life beyond DVD."

Outside related News:

• IMAX (IMAX) The growth potential of the 3D films business remains considerable: IHS estimates global 3D box-office revenue grew 144% Y/Y in 2010 to $6.1B, but still only accounted for for 19.3% of ticket receipts.

• Hoping to keep the cost of date night in check - or maybe to get more control over an entertainment industry starting to resemble the West too much - China is considering capping the prices of movie tickets. The move could threaten the booming industry, where box office revenue rose 18% in 2011.

• The company blames the shortfalls on weak film performance and a high investment level. IMAX expects adjusted earnings to decline in 2011, and revenues to be "consistent with last year." Due to The beat goes on for the seemingly unstoppable shift of TV programming from traditional media firms to online upstarts and large tech concerns (I, II). The latest: Tom Hanks in a cartoon series for Yahoo (YHOO), Kevin Spacey on Netflix (NFLX), and $100M of original programming set to be launched from YouTube (GOOG). Will the household satellite dishes of DirecTV (DTV) and Dish Network (DISH) become a relic of the past?

Related Companies

Netflix, Inc. (Netflix) is an Internet subscription service streaming television shows and movies. The Company’s subscribers can watch unlimited television shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can also receive digital versatile discs (DVDs) delivered to their homes. This company currently has a market cap of $5.26B.

Reports 4^th Quarter Ending December 2011 on 1/25/2012 at 4:05PM ET, followed by a Conference Call 6:00PM ET' After The Close. Consensus Estimate” $0.55; Earnings Whisper $0.59.

• Friday, January 20, 1:38 PM Netflix's (NFLX) streaming service offers just 5 of the top 100 2011 movies compared to 10 one year ago and in the 40s for Amazon (AMZN), iTunes (AAPL), and Vudu (WMT). The data make even clearer Netflix's move away from offering popular movies on a subscription basis and towards more of a TV-network type model, writes Tristan Louis. and remains concerned about the potential for higher licensing payments to EPIX.

• Thursday, January 19, 12:35 PM Why does Big Media favor SOPA legislation that's so punitive toward web companies like Google? Edward Jay Epstein surmises it has as much to do with protecting the pipe as it does protecting the content itself. "These golden geese are in danger of being strangled to death by video streaming," so anti-piracy talk really comes in second to stunting the growth of even legitimate online distribution.

• Monday, January 16, 4:27 AM Hulu (co-owned by DIS, CMCSA, NWS) is pushing into original programming, hoping to steal more customers from Netflix (NFLX) with the debut of its first scripted show on Feb. 14.

• Friday, January 13, 3:58 PM Netflix (NFLX) enjoys a boost after B. Riley reiterates its Buy rating, saying investors should hold on to their shares until after the company's Q4 conference call on Jan. 25.

EA - It's In The Game

$EA 17.50 Jan $PUT in .38 out .27 loss

9:49 AM Electronic Arts (EA -2.5%) trades lower after Brean Murray lowers its PT to $22 from $28, albeit while reiterating a Buy. The firm says weaker-than-expected initial subscriber growth for Star Wars: The Old Republic, an ambitious online title released last month, leads it to be concerned about EA's FY13 (ends March '13) EPS. On Dec. 26, EA claimed it had racked up over 1M users for Star Wars.

FSLR - Water Fall

All out $FSLR 41 JAN P 1.08 in... Out at 1.69. Very fast lotto ticket.

Updated - TSLA Up +4% After Water Fall

The big picture was that Goldman Sachs (GS) was a lead underwriter on this one, even if they had 2 Senior Executive leave, one being the Chief Engineer. Goldman need and did come in to support it.

Update - WLT Swing Play

Walter Energy Inc - WLT update, this swing play is completed. This company hit $62.00; and has pulled back to $61.73. Seeing some resistance on the Daily - 3 month chart.

RULES OF ENGAGEMENT – PSYCHOLOGY AND MONEY MANAGEMENT

Quote: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results.” There are many characteristics and skills required by traders in order for them to be successful in the markets. There are many rules (1 to 10 and/or 1 to 100); but two (2) are paramount. The market is not place to find yourself. All the great traders attest to the impact of psychology and money management has on trading.

PSYCHOLOGY

*Deepak Chorpa says that “all relationship is a reflection of your relationship with yourself.” Psychology has a powerful impact on trading results. It is impossible to separate your psychological makeup from your results. Being aware of the way your mind works is the first step. You must know your own strengths and weakness before your can hope to grow stronger and to overcome the obstacles.

The currently recognized version of the sins are usually given as wrath, greed, sloth, pride, lust, envy, and gluttony.

Remember, the first time you placed a trade and because your best research led you to believe that the stock was going up or down. What happens if the stock moves in the opposite direction instead? The obvious comment here is you were wrong, plain and simple. But, Your mind goes into hyperactive mode. Chasing the trade (In and Out) Over-trading, Holding Overnight. As the Green and Red flashes on the screen goes by, you experience the panic and stress of losing over 40 percent of your account in three minutes. If you really want to get your blood boiling all you need to do is watch your profit erode tick by tick by tick as you place an order an on your computer only to find out that there servers are busy and your order status reads “Pending” for the next ten minutes. Successful traders have to find ways to reduce the stress of commonly associated with trading. Don't fall into the trap of feeling that you can't get this business. To create your own plan, examine the following three-point outline.

MANAGE YOUR LOSSES TO PROFIT CONSISTENTLY

This dynamic environment borders on schizophrenia, where the bulls and bears do battle trying to out guess each other. Each price move (tick) rearranges everyone's assumptions about what the market is about to do. One of the greatest attributes in any industry is the ability to change direction when a roadblock is reached. Traders must also exhibit this flexibility if they are to survive in the marketplace.

Your trading goals should be as realistic as possible. This is no secret. Unfortunately, that old maxim “cut your losses and let your profits run” is easier said than done. If you are losing money, sell before you lose any more of it. Or the strategy you have adopted is the “Hope Strategy”. Decide how much you can afford to lose and put a limit on your losses. Your profits should more than compensate for your losses. Keep in mind; the stock price will fluctuate throughout the day. You don't want to owe the market for your time an effort.

MAINTAIN A BUSINESS DISCIPLINE

This is your business. Apply self discipline to your business. Show up, be prepared, be productive, and be professional. The difference in a “Job” and “Trader” is the fact a job is passive income and the other is active. Meaning a “Job” you show up and they pay, whatever they feel your time is worth. No matter how long the hours are. As a “Trader” your income is active this meaning that unless you report to your trading desk, you will not make a dime from trading. You have to make a trade you herbs.

MAKE A COMMITMENT TO YOURSELF

This specialization allows the trader to develop strategies that consistently work in certain recognizable market conditions. Continue to broaden your market knowledge and experiment and refine the strategies that work for you. Competition brings emotion into an already emotional atmosphere. Know the style of trading that fits your personality and lifestyle, and compete with yourself to become a better trader.

CONCLUSION

Psychological make up of the market is made up of people, and people are creature of habit. The markets will always change. Noting is permanent. Remember, patience and persistence will help you to succeed. Just as success is an attitude, trading is a discipline.

TSLA - All Eggs In One Basket - Water Fall

• Friday 4:49 PM Tesla Motors (TSLA -19.3%) rises 6.6% AH, rebounding a bit from the bloodletting it saw after it was reported its chief engineer and vehicle/chassis engineering chief are leaving. Given that Tesla lacks the scale of larger automakers, the quality of its engineering (responsible for the exceptional range of its electric cars) is crucial to its ability to carve out a niche.

• Friday 3:29 PM Tesla Motors (TSLA -10.2%) plummets after 2 executives leave ahead of the mid-year debut of the company's latest car. Blue Phoenix's John Licata says one of the departing execs is the firm's chief engineer.

EcoNews for Jan 16 - Jan 20

WLT - Swing Trade

Walter Energy, Inc. (WLT $58.75 -$3.19 (-5.15%) is a producer and exporter of metallurgical coal for the global steel industry and also produces steam coal, coal bed methane gas (natural gas), metallurgical coke and other related products. The Company operates in three business segments: Underground Mining, Surface Mining and Walter Coke. They currently have a Market Cap of 3.67B

Company related News:

Thursday, December 15, 8:38 AM Walter Energy (WLT) +3.5% pre-market following a Daily Mail story that the coal producer could be a takeover target by Rio Tinto (RIO) or BHP Billiton (BHP). Global miners are scrambling for coal assets, and analysts speculate Walter's takeout price could double its current ~$60/share.

** BHP Billiton Limited (BHP is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates nine customer sector groups (CSGs): petroleum, aluminum, base metals (including uranium), diamonds and specialty products, stainless steel materials, iron ore, manganese, metallurgical coal and energy coal. They have a Market Cap of 199.46B

** Rio Tinto plc (Rio Tinto) is engaged in minerals exploration, development, production and processing. The Company’s product groups include aluminum, copper, diamonds and minerals, energy, and iron ore. Its major products are aluminum, copper, diamonds, coal, iron ore, uranium, molybdenum, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt and talc. They have a Market Cap of 28.28B

Wednesday, November 2, 6:06 PM Walter Industries (WLT): Q3 EPS of $1.21 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $690M (+49% Y/Y) misses by $32M. After posting Q3 revenues that fell less than expected. Profit still managed to dip 44% Y/Y, as production problems due to heavy rains significantly weakened output, but were mitigated somewhat by higher coal prices. Operating margin also imploded, down to 21.5% from 44.8%, as overall costs more than doubled.

Outside related News:

Friday 9:06 AM Patriot Coal (PCX) -6.6% pre-market after saying it will cut production of metallurgical coal used to make steel due to weakening demand. PCX will idle some mines at its southern West Virginia operations, but did not say if it would lay off any workers. More details will be provided when it releases Q4 results on Jan. 31.

Friday 10:13 AM Patriot Coal's (PCX -6.8%) warning triggers a broader sell-off in coal stocks. ANR -7.6%. BTU -3.3%. CNX -3.8%. JRCC -7.6%. ACI -6.9%. The fact the warning was related to the production of high-end coal used for steel making is likely to raise fears of slowing global industrial output.

Per GOOG Finance these two companies are not related companies, which I think it strange, but as with all data, its is a good as the input. Well this bring us to why I like this as a swing trade and we will be looking at the 5 min chart with 3 days of data for some answers.

Viewing the 5 min chart it appears that WLT has made a double bottom pattern (1/11/2012 and 1/13/2012); we want this to hold. Price was taken to the downside, on Friday's news compounded by the S&P Euro Downgrades games of other countries. If there is more games, that could bring us to a third attempt to the 58.17 area, maybe. This is a swing trade.

WLT (Price Target +$60.00) +$2.00 from Friday's close.

WLT (Stop Loss -$56.63) -$2.12 from Friday's close.

****There has been some addition news on this this company, which came in after hour.

WLT - Walter Energy (WLT $56.55 -$2.20) Updates Production Outlook and Announces Executive Appointments..

They provided guidance that 2012 met coal production will be between 11.5 million and 13 million metric tons. Also, Walter Energy, Inc. (Walter) commented on fourth quarter results and announced that it has made three executive appointments. Given this combination of factors, Walter estimates that fourth quarter 2011 financial results were below the low end of its prior guidance. As noted above, actual financial results will be disclosed at end of February 2012.

C on a JPM Earnings Drop

EcoNews Jan 9 - Jan 13, 2012

EcoNews Int'l - Jan 2 / Jan 6

Smell The Roses, Wisconsin Feel The Pain