Is a private-equity research firm.
The charts provided here are not meant for investment purpose(s) and only serve as technical examples. Trader Disclosure: See below for our Legal / Disclaimer.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Its Greek To Me?! - Options Delta and Theta

Delta
Delta is a measure of responsiveness of an option's price relative to the change in price of the underlying security. For instance, if GS calls have a delta of 0.8, for every $1 that GS rises, the GS calls will rise by 80 cents per share, or $80 per contract. Sometimes an option’s delta is not listed as a decimal, but as a whole number - perhaps '60' in the previous case. However, a delta can never be greater than 1.00, or 100% ... that's just an alternative way of describing how responsive an option is to change in the underlying stock. The more conventional representation is in decimal form.

For put options, since they increase in value as the underlying stock or index moves lower, their delta is given as a negative number. Had a put been considered instead of a call in the above example, and the responsiveness was still 0.70 worth of change for every $1.00 in the underlying, that put would have been given a delta value of -0.70. In the case of put options, delta is expressed as a negative number.

Theta
Also known as time decay, 'theta' is the amount of daily reduction of an option contract's value as the expiration date approaches. The amount is generally expressed as a negative number, though some data providers simply display the amount of daily loss as a positive number. It's also important to understand that some data providers express theta for an entire contract, while others might supply a theta value simply for one underlying share. Since an option contract represents 100 shares of a stock, in the latter case the theta value would need to be multiplied by 100 to determine the daily value decline of a contract.

Using the GS call example again, a theta of -.10 would mean the contract loses $10 per day just due to the passage of time.

Like all option Greeks, theta is also usually listed as a decimalized figure. A theta value of 0.07 simply means that for each share of a 100 share contract, that contract loses 7 cents per day. Or, the entire contract loses $7.00 in value every day. This daily loss includes weekends.

Obviously theta and delta have an immediate impact - for better or worse - on an option's value.

For this reason, most traders compare several 'what if' delta and theta scenarios before choosing an option. For an option owner, the higher the delta, the better the likely dollar movement from the option as the underlying stock or index moves lower. However, high-delta options usually cost more (and are usually deeper in the money), which can offset the benefit of a strong delta.

There is no particular argument for or against high-delta options. The lesson to be learned is simply that not all options are the same. An individual trader must weigh the upside and the downside of a variety of option trading scenarios to determine which delta makes the most sense with respect to risk and reward.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

GS - Earnings Estimates Due March 18, 2009

GS
Q1 2009 Goldman Sachs Earnings Release
$ 1.35 EPS Estimates
$ 3.23 Prev. Year Actual
16-Mar-09 - 26-Mar-09 Date and Time (ET)

Earnings for GS are due out Before The Open on March 18, 2009. March options have a week left before expiration and we typical do not do the front month during earnings week, however, look at the charts and pick your battles. This is like a lottery ticket, which every side is profitable take your profits and move on. Straddle purchase as follows:

GS Mar 85 Calls for 2.73 with a delta of .31 for every dollar the underlying stock moves.
GS Mar 65 Puts for 3.00 with a delta of .25 for every dollar the underlying stock moves.

or

GS Mar 90 Calls for 1.52 with a delta of .20 for every dollar the underlying stock moves.
GS Mar 60 for 1.99 with a delta of .16 for every dollar the underlying stock moves.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Most Active By Vol - March 6


ExxonMobil (XOM)
47,092,171
64.03
AppleInc (AAPL)
36,109,637
85.3
Genentech (DNA)
34,726,071
90.86
GoldmanSachs (GS)
33,485,631
75.65
Chevron (CVX)
22,107,787
58.27
McDonalds (MCD)
18,188,340
52.12
PotashCp (POT)
16,731,259
66.31
IBM (IBM)
15,187,819
85.81
VISA ClA (V)
15,177,156
50.19
Amazon.com (AMZN)
15,093,753
61.69
RohmHaas (ROH)
13,305,065
63.8
Google (GOOG)
7,234,257
308.57
Gnzym (GENZ)
6,126,303
53.17
ApolloGp A (APOL)
4,352,344
64.69

GS - Daily and Weekly Chart


Trade of March 2 - March 6, 2009. GS was all over the place and it was a trade that deserved a watch over. We were able to make some profits on GS, however, we left a lot on the table -$3K. Strategy, is working however we need to focus on staying the course.

Sector Maps



Local Jobs vanish at faster clip, unemployment accrelerated at a record pace in January, based on data that date to 1990. That number exceeded the number of layoffs during the 1990s recession, when annualized jobs they are toast. Note: House Passes Mortgage Relief Bill. Banks/Finanicals are still the major players in this game. Investors are still worry about banks and GM.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Sector Map

The above charts do not do justice to what is happening here in the markets, we have not going anywhere but sideways. AIG is getting another handout, they should let them fail as we did with the other institutions. Small companies will be able to gain in market share and we will be one step closer the the prize in the sky. Red Rover, Red Rover, send AIG out the down and let put us all back on track again.

Saturday, February 28, 2009

IF THE MOUNTAIN WILL NOT COME TO . . . , . . . WILL GO TO THE MOUNTAIN


"If one cannot get one's own way, one must adjust to the inevitable."

Things to Watch: In This Markets

10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m

8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change

8:30am USD Unemployment Rate

Sector Maps

The Specturm chart looks like Star Wars, light sabre show bad vs. good. The government's gross domestic product report showed that the economy fell at a -6.2 percent annual pace at the end of last year, a pace that was much faster than execpted. New CitiGroup Deal, the Prince? My Kingdom, My Kingdom . . .

Friday, February 20, 2009

JPM Options Of The Day

Option Day Purchase: JPM Mar 20 Puts - JSAOD, for a decent profit (meaning no loss for the day). JPM had a nice range today of $2.25, HOD 21 to LOD 18.75 = Closing at 19.96. Stoch are starting to bottoming out, so this should be and considered as a warning. This is a crazy market and you should be small and take your profits when they are presented.
Account status as of end for Feb 20th:
Positions closed for Gain: JPM
Open Positions: None

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Sectors and Maps


Tomorrow Number To Watch

8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
0.1%
0.0%

8:30am USD CPI m/m
0.2%
-0.8%

Scalping With Options

JPM - Mar 09 JSAOD 20P

Looking at the Daily chart our range has been broken for now, a window as been opened and the old range was 28 to 24 per share price. There should be a restesting of the lows 20 and 18 per share price! Charts were also a cool waterfall on the 5 min and 15 min. Looking for some more downside, but round number are the stall points and with GS not help in the fast down market. We would have like quicker in and out trades with this option. However, a profit(s) is a profit.

1:15pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks - Comments helped the sell-off in the financials; whewe. Also, Bank of New York - did not like the fact of a cap on bonuses, haha. Clarity is no more for the financials?!

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Economic Releases For Feb 19

8:30am USD PPI m/m
0.2%
-1.9%

8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
620K
623K

8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
0.1%
0.2%

10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
-24.1
-24.3

10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m
0.0%
0.3%

10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
-47B
-159B

11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories
2.9M
4.7M

1:15pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

Monday, February 16, 2009

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall.
Thinking of a great stimulate package that had great flaws.
All the king's horses and all the king's men .
Couldn't put a Bipartisan Stimulate package together if they try, try, try, try, tried again.

Holiday Market Calendars


Frankfurt trading holidays 2009
At FWB Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Frankfurt Stock Exchange) there will be trading Mondays to Fridays in 2009, with the exception of 1 January, 10 April, 13 April, 1 May, 24 December, 25 December and 31 December. 24 and 31 December are settlement days.

Labels: ,

Nordic trading holiday schedule 2009
Market closed
Half day trading
Copenhagen
1/1, 9-10/4, 13/4, 8/5, 21-22/5, 1/6, 5/6, 24-25/12, 31/12,
-
Stockholm
1/1, 6/1, 10/4, 13/4, 1/5, 21/5, 19/6, 24.-25/12, 31/12
5/1, 9/4, 30/4, 20/5, 30/10
Helsinki
1/1, 6/1, 10/4, 13/4, 1/5, 21/5, 19/6, 24-25/12, 31/12
-
Iceland
1/1, 9-10/4, 13/4, 23/4, 1/5, 21/5, 1/6, 17/6, 3/8, 24-25/12, 31/12

US stock market holidays 2009

2009
New Year's Day
January 1
Martin Luther King Day
January 19
Presidents' Day
February 16
Good Friday
April 10
Memorial Day
May 25
Independence Day
July 3 (observed)
Labor Day
September 7
Thanksgiving Day
November 26
Christmas
December 25


Japan stock market holidays 2009
2009
Jan. 1
New Year's Day
Jan. 12
Coming of Age Day
Feb. 11
National Foundation Day
Mar. 20
Vernal Equinox
Apr. 29
Showa Day
May 3
Constitution Memorial Day
May 4
Greenery Day
May 5
Children's Day
May 6
Holiday
Jul. 20
Marine Day
Sep. 21
Respect for the Aged Day
Sep. 22
Holiday
Sep. 23
Autumnal equinox
Oct. 12
Health and Sports Day
Nov. 3
Culture Day
Nov. 23
Labor Thanksgiving Day
Dec. 23
Emperor's Birthday

Hong Kong stock market holidays 2009
.nobr br { display: none }
Date
Holiday
Day
1 JAN
The first day of January
Thursday
26 JAN
Lunar New Year's Day
Monday
27 JAN
The second day of the Lunar New Year
Tuesday
28 JAN
The third day of the Lunar New Year
Wednesday
4 APR
Ching Ming Festival
Saturday
10 APR
Good Friday
Friday
11 APR
The day following Good Friday
Saturday
13 APR
Easter Monday
Monday
1 MAY
Labour Day
Friday
2 MAY
The Buddha's Birthday
Saturday
28 MAY
Tuen Ng Festival
Thursday
1 JUL
Hong Kong Adm. Region Estab. Day
Wednesday
1 OCT
National Day
Thursday
3 OCT
Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival
Saturday
26 OCT
Chung Yeung Festival
Monday
25 DEC
Christmas Day
Friday
26 DEC
The first weekday after Christmas Day
Saturday


Spain stock market holidays 2009

Spain stock market in 2009 is closed:
Thursday 1 January 2009 (New Year’s Day)
Friday 10 April 2009 (Good Friday)
Monday 13 April 2009 (Easter Monday)
Friday 1 May 2009 (Labour day)
Thursday 24 december 2009 (Christmas eve)
Friday 25 December 2009 (Christmas Day)
Thursday 31 december 2009Note:Information from Bolsa de Madrid

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Trade The News - MicroTrading - 1 min Chart

This is a techinque designed for the trader that is likely to get in and out with a smaller profits, and is not able to trade for hours. Here is a great example of how you can use the 1 minute charts to trade the ecomonic news releases and general news releases. To find out when the world economic, earnings, downgrades, upgrades releases are, simply google it or scroll down the right side of this blog to the bottom for a list of websites or current week news releases that impact the markets. Using the 1 minute strategy along with the news, is an effective way of scapling profits on the markets.

**Tip: Remember to wait a mintue or two after the announcement. Don't open a position before the scheduled time!

**Tip: There are news releases all throughout the week during the different time zones and trading sessions. This techinque works well during premarket and after market sessions.

Attention:

Using the 1 mintue charts is fast moving. It might not be your style of trading. If you want to test out slower moving averages combinations that whipsaw less often on the 1 minute charts, you can try these:

7, 5 and 10 EMA

Detail :

- Wait for the 4 SMA to cross through the 21 EMA
- Wait for the Stochastics - If either the %K or %D fall below 20 and then starts to rise again above 20, this may be considered a buy sign. Similarly, a selling signal is thought to occur if the indicator rises above 80 and then begins to fall below 80.
- Remember to take small profits
- Practice this strategy on your demo account.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

JPM and XLF Dailies

JPM is currently in a downtrend, even as it is one of the best in the Financial sector. It has been diffcult to trade it the last couple of days; as the market have been trending and waiting for all those Economic News, Congress Hearings. JPM trading range is at 28 to 24 per share. Friday was a attempt to sell the news, as we where all ready knowing that the House and Senate would passed the bill. It is now on the Presidential desk for signing. Also, with Monday beeing a market holiday there was no rally which normally happpens during upcoming holidays. 18 trading days left in the month of Feburary.

Range bound for the most part with all that is going on . . .

Friday, February 13, 2009

Sector Maps and Groups




Trading Habits Pt 2

1) Don't trade when the 4sma, 8sma and 20sma are really narrow. Wait for it to break out first.

2) Don't trade when the market is slow (like right now). You can trade at other times, but just make sure there are decent volatility / momentum.

3) Don't trade 30 minutes before or after news. If there's BIG news coming, it might not be good to trade for hours before because the market just stalls and goes nowhere (same problem as #2). This is because it's waiting for the news announcement. In this case, don't trade until after the news. Watch for News that is - High and Medium Profile.

4) Don't trade if you're up against a barrier. This includes the daily R1 R2 R3, daily S1 S2 S3, daily pivot, and weekly pivot. It's also good to look at the 15min 4sma, 8sma and 20sma to see if you're close to them as well. I also recommend treating the "00's" (239.00, 238.00, etc.) as barriers. I call them psychological barriers, and it's really just common sense. Just think about when you have a $100 bill. You're less likely to spend it. Once you finally decide to break the $100 bill, you'll usually spend your smaller bills much more quickly. This is just human nature, and well, the market is driven by human beings.

Instead of just thinking of the barriers as times not to trade, use them to your advantage. Wait for either a break through of the barrier or bounce off it. If it does this, you should still wait for the moving averages and your other indicators to give you a signal.

Limit Orders and Scalping Charts

This is a modified strategy for the active options trader. When we are buying calls or puts, we want to do so at the lowest levels possible. To help in doing this, we put in limit orders below the previous close or most recent last closing price and let those oversold or overbrought opportunities come to us when making high probability, short term trades in stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities. We like to have opportunities come to us, rather than chase them.


We are looking to buy the pulled back, our trading strategy is to use limit orders below the previous close or most recent last closing price. This gives us the opportunity for playing pull backs on an intraday basis, giving us an even lower priced entry into the position. It has been a valuable part of our overall approach to buying weakness and selling strength.

We use a 4-day moving average and wait for our stock to close above or below that 4-day moving average. Once it has done so, we exit at the market.

Once we have spotted our oversold stock, we look to use continued strength in the stock as an opportunity to take a position on the short side. This is the intraday strength that we talk about. In the same way that we look for intraday weakness to enter long positions, we look for intraday strength to enter short positions. By putting a sell limit order anywhere from 2% to 6% above the previous close, we allow stocks to "come to us" rather than chasing them. We've found this approach to work as well for buying strong stocks as it does for shorting weak stocks.


There are different options for short term traders following this trading strategy. If you place your limit order very close to the previous close or most recent last closing price, for example at 1-3% below that level, then you are likely to get more fills than if you placed your limit order farther away. This will mean more trades and, relatively speaking a larger number of losing trades, as well.


If you place your limit order at a greater distance from the previous close or most recent last closing price, such as 4-6%, then you will get significantly fewer trades than if your limit order were closer. But those trades will likely be more profitable as you will only be trading the deepest pullbacks and the most oversold stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities.

Because we look to buy stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities after they have pulled back rather than after they have broken out to new highs, our approach to entering trades is different from that of many short term trading strategies. This approach does more than just get us into trades at the lowest possible levels. It also serves to keep us disciplined rather than emotional when it comes to taking trades.


If you want to be more active as a trader, use a tighter limit order. If you only want the biggest pullbacks and don't mind missing a few of the more modest gaining trades, then go ahead and use a limit order that is 4% or more below the stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities previous close or most recent last closing price.


One observation, with the sort of high probability, high win-rate trading opportunities that, the downside of using a tighter limit order that ostensibly increases trade frequency and potential losses is much less pronounced than it might be with other strategies with win rates closer to 50%. This is why having a strict entry rule, such as using limit order 2% to 6% below the stock's last close is so helpful. By the time an already oversold stock makes an additional 2-6% correction intraday, that stock is all more likely to have run out of willing sellers and that is the moment we are waiting for. So when looking to trade stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities, be sure that you don't chase those trades. Put in your limit order below the previous close and let those oversold opportunities come to you.


Whichever approach you take should be based on your personality and trading preferences.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Money Management & Trading Habits

The more trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move. Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade it will be the better bet. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.

Always have a trading strategy . . . make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not Bloomberg or some statement from Brokers, Friends, Relatives, Analysts, etc.

Your charts are your path to guide your through the market waves. Everything what you need to know about the market is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from your charts. Specialize in one or two markets. Every single market has its own characteristic. No market are the same, very soon you will be able to read the market like a road map.

Stay away from the ranging markets.

Don’t try to chase every single market movement.

The more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.

Note: Remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The Trading Day

The intraday battle has many different time zones.

The market starts off like a 40 yard dash form 9:30 - 10:30 am est. Although the equities markets are open from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. EST, which is six and a half hours, there are not six and a half hours of solid opportunities. In fact, I believe there are usually one to two hours at best that provide tradeable opportunities during the day. It then proceeds to slow down but maintains a steady pace until 11:45 - 12:30 pm est. The markets then slow down into a sleep period which I call Dead Zone until 2:30 - 3:00pm est for the final dash into the close. This is how the market pretty much paces itself every day.

This can be hard for many traders to swallow but if you go back and review your trades, in most cases, the profits usually come in the first and last hour. The losses usually come in the form of head fakes and stops from the four hours between 11 a.m. to 3 p.m., which is also referred to as the deadzone.

The "intraday fertile trading environment" is the opening hour from 9:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (give or take 30 minutes). As a caveat, it’s best for less experienced traders to start at 9:45 a.m. after the opening chop slows a bit as the moving averages firm up. This is where the most volume, immediate followthrough and trending will take place. This is where you can make a trade and reverse it and still make profits on the overall trade because the volume is there. You can’t do this when the volume slows down in the valley period from 11-3pm (give or take 30mins). There will obviously be exceptions but keep in mind that they are just exceptions.

Pre-market
7:30 a.m. to 8:00 a.m.Mostly the big players play the markets, like institutions, specialists, and market makers. The trades executed in this time zone create gaps from yesterday’s closing prices.

8:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.The big players still have control, but some small players start to battle with the opening of Archipelago, Island, and other Electronic Communications Networks. Some traders have brokers who do not allow access to trade until 8:00 a.m.

Market open
9:30 a.m. to 10:05 a.m.The market officially opens. This is the fastest time of the day. The market makers and specialists battle with market orders from institutions, as well as small players. The volume is the heaviest and reversals can happen very quickly.

10:30 a.m.Another possible reversal zone.

11:15 a.m.Volume dries up as the market makers and specialists go for lunch.

11:15 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.Stocks tend to run out of steam and pull back to support/resistance areas. Any breakout patterns are not reliable because the big players leave for lunch and control goes to the second-in-command who does not have the power to go into full battle. He is only allowed to deal with small orders while his boss is at lunch.

12:30 p.m. to 1:00 p.m.Volume is still light and 1:00 p.m. is a possible reversal area.

1:30 p.m.Possible reversal area.

1:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m.A continuing trend or sideways movement on low volume.

2:15 p.m.Big players come back from lunch and volume picks up.

2:30 p.m.Reversal area. An important reversal time because the big players have returned from lunch and execute larger orders. Volume noticeably picks up momentum.

3:00 p.m.Reversal area. Another important reversal time because the bond market closes.

3:30 p.m.Yet another major reversal zone. Profits from morning positions may be taken off the table, changing the direction of the trend.

4:00 p.m.The market closes. Note that you should close any positions you do not wish to hold overnight before 3:50 p.m. The last ten minutes of trading can be whippy on strong volume and does not give a clear picture of any trend. Traders who are not holding positions overnight are closing out their trades, and overnight traders are placing their bets for gap plays the following morning.

Post-market
4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.Stocks can be active if news derived from earnings reports is released during this time, as well as any other non-earnings news.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Earning Calendar

Feb 09
VOD BCS L LO AU KUB SAN NYX

Feb 10
DTV UBS AMAT OMC TAP VFC EXPD CSC

Group Sector - 1 Day


S&P 500, World And EFT Maps




Market Action

All we can say is what a ride we had today in the markets. We were not convince of the market moves in the pre-market action; as the Job numbers were worry some, but Feb 4 let the air out of the number and the number will get worst as we go along. The market was passed the Job Numbers and started to look foward to the Stim Package to be release on Monday. GS did not act right at all on Feb 5; it did not partake in the market moves. We were look for opportunties are the came along. Feb 6; we played small ball (small trades) in and out (scalping). . . Monday should a good one again to the downside (sell the news) we will see and possibly some continutation on Friday's move for the most part. . .?!

GS +4.20%
JPM +12.63%

Closing Dow and Nasdaq Numbers

DJIA 8,280 +217.52
NASDAQ 1,591 +45.47

Friday, January 30, 2009

Earnings Calendar

Feb 02/b PEG SYY LO EPD HUM MAT ROK CPO
Feb 02/a APC AFL PCL PBI PRE CCK HOLX MKL

JPM and Sector Daily Charts





Month End

January comes to a gloomy close as the markets fall again on worsening economic data and nagging uncertainty about the government's bailout plans. We were profitable in the beginning +19% for the month; however; due to some extreme risk-taking on our part. Holding on to Jan Options that expired worthless - killing the account with a major loss. The bet would have paid out nicely but time was not on our side. Markets tanked the next day.

As we close this month we are now at a -30% drop in our account. Drop occurred on the 3rd week of the month; we have fixed the flaw and managed to dig out and ended up with a -30% drop instead of a much larger number.

As we, have said “Life is a Journey, not a Destination”. As we look forward on to the next month and better trade management.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Don’t Be Anxious

Here are some ways I learned to sit, be patient and avoid the big losing days. Don’t be anxious –

There are 6.5 hours in the trading day so be patient and try to avoid trading the first 15 to 20 minutes.

Use this time to observe and get a feelAlways have a reason to enter a trade – Stop guessing. Trade as if you were training other traders and being held accountable for each trade. (Trust me on this one.)

Observe yourself trading with discipline.Probe (Scale in) -- If you want to take a position of 300 shares enter it 100 shares at a time. If you’re wrong the loss isn’t as bad and you spend less in commissions.

Have a stop-loss every day – Every trader should have a maximum amount they can afford to lose each day. When you hit it STOP trading!Avoid tight ranges and low volume – This is a time to sit on your hands.

Wait patiently for the market to pick a direction. Narrow range days often follow a giant move from the day prior. Buyers and sellers battle for control after such moves. When you spot this scenario, stand aside and wait to see who wins. Then join that team. If you insist on trading a narrow range day actively, then fade moves and go for small scalps.

Day Trading is a profession, so try to treat it like a business and not like a black jack table. Trade when it’s hot and learn to sit on your hands when it’s not. There aren't too many businesses that end each day in 100% cash with no inventory.

Protect that cash.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Date Earnings Release

Jan 26/b MCD KMB CAT COV DHR HAL LO DGX
Jan 26/a AMGN TXN AXP MCK VMW JEC PTV SNDK

Friday, January 23, 2009

Intraday Stock Trading Tutorial

JPM Up Into The Weekend


JPM up into the Friday closing bell, which is a good bounce off the weekly low and it is starting to come into the first level of resistance. I would look to see how the market opens on Monday before placing a trade. Banks Nationalization Program? I do not think there will be one, but if they do make a decision on a newly RTC, which was done in the G.W. Bush time. I think we will see large swings the short term. Banks can not get too low; as this causes bank runs.

Well have a great weekend!!

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

World Map - Sectorkool


It was infectious all over the place for the markets, this is a daily snap shot. Is everybody catching a cold?

Re: The Red Sea!?

JPM as you can see on this daily chart, that JPM made the continution trip down to the downside. So many of the Finanical - Money Centers did not make it. The market is looking forward to the earnings and bigger write-downs.



Wednesday, January 14, 2009

GS - Drop and Pop

Well it was no surprise to wake with the markets dropping on Deutsche Bank AG (USA) news. Above is a snap shot of the sector heat map and it is all red. Financials are in the driver seat again and it looks like 2008 is still being relived. Well there is more to come in the financial sector. Financial has just begun their earnings annoucements, there is alot still on the books that have not been address. Commerical lease and loans are coming up and also the next batch of residential loans.

We took a position in GS today for an intraday price for the GS - JAN 09 GSMO 75P for $1.99; rode it down to $2.60 for a 28% gain for our 0:13:28 in market time. After the initial exit, we were think about going in for a second dip, however, we had to other things to get done. Thinking about it, it would have been nice!. Large Swings are back, be careful.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Caught With Our Hand In The Cookie Jar!?

The above chart is a Daily chart of JPM as of 1-9-2009; as in the last chart we saw that the Stoch and RSI were in the Overbrought area and need to come down or find suppport, well it did move higher, then tanked with us in it. The bow MA fail to produce a quailty trade that was substainable. JPM is set for Jan 21 2009 earnings report and a Diviend Payout on Jan 31, 2009. Conference call is scheduled for Jan 21; as the earnings annoucement will be BMO = Before Market Opens on Jan 21. We see contintued pressure on the Weekly Chart for JPM to the downside.
Well we were off to a nice start for the 2009 season and in a bold move to play with the market in a game of chicken. We find ourselves in a -2% loss for Jan 2009. We were long and had a profit going into the Jobless Number, however, it did not last. We decided to straddle this trade with a put. Wrong! Instead of a closer to the money put we purchased one that was two strikes out of the money, which mean it will take twice as long to develop then one in closer or at the money.

Oh well, win some and loss them. I have gone back to the drawing board to figure out the little details that were missed.
We did find that mental stops are good if you remember them. We found that you need to check the option chain for were all the options are at in relation to Stock Price. Spreadsheets have been updated to correctly price which options are better than others.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Start of 2009 - JPM

As of Jan 2, 2009; we see the markets end up on a positive note, even as the Indus Number show a weak economic platform. We still have extremely light volume as most trader were still on holiday or vacation. Monday will be proof in the pudding, I would not give much thought until the 2nd week of Jan, to see were this baby will go.

Daily chart appears to be holding strong and RSI and Stoch are in the oversold area of the chart. MA's have completed there crossovers.

Jan 09 31C were on the menu for Jan 2, 2009. Costing us 1.63 entry at mid-day, after several hours of the market being in positive terrority, we took this position as a good trade. JPM was having trouble; as it was not play along with the others in the group. The stock was showing weakness; who knows what it was. After the initial entry JPM went sideways for a bit and but just 20 minutes before the close of session, we managed to make a profit of 1.92 exit; less fees and commission. Take-home was around 15% ROI.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Ending 2008 with JPM - Jan 31 2009 Calls

This a Daily chart for JPM, current price has moved above all MA's; time will time if this holds. We could see a bow tie effect in the coming days. Due to the extremely light volume of the market pass couple of trading sessions and weeks for 2008, we saw a great big move to the upside. Will this continue in the New Year? Well, as an Option Trader, we play the hand that is dealt; we do not believe in picking a direction of the Markets.

The resistance level appears to be around the $34 then $36 per share level; as the 50-Day MA is at this price level. Look at Dec 7-8; when the 50-Day MA held the price and then JPM moved lower. The RSI and the Stoch are becoming oversold.

I would look for an entry for your risk level.

The first week of Jan will tell us how the market should react in the coming months in 2009. Play them like you see them.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

JPM - Weekly and Daily Charts



















The first chart is a Weekly chart; looks likely its finishing up on closing the window left on a gap down to the $20.00 level. Auto Bailout did not pass and I believe there may be more uncertain in the market and the markets always retest the lows on way or another. Indicators are in a downtrend, as you can see in the Daily chart.
The second chart is a Daily chart; as shown it is currently in a downtrend, I believe Fri was a blowoff of the Auto Bailout not passing and a lot of traders did not want to go into the weekend long or short. The WhiteHouse will have some of the earmarked Financial Bailout package money to be used for the Automarker.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

JPM - Running To R1 Level? Can We Break It?



JPM is running to its R1 level of $35 per shr. Can we break it and make a run for the $40 per shr level, it appears that we have a W bottom in place with it clearing and closing above the middle of the W point. As you can see there is heavy R1 Resistance - MA indicators are down to flat on this daily chart.

MA 20 = $35 per shr
MA 50 = $36 per shr
MA 200 = $40 per shr

BAC = Bank of American and MER = Merrill Lynch, shareholder have approved a merger of the two companies, over the weekend and this may help with the financial on Monday Dec 8, 2008. Friday running in the financial sector the Big Boys and Girls were pleased to say the least, as there was a major run up in the Financial Sector. Consolidation within the industry mean money is moving around, who will be next?

Saturday, December 6, 2008

JPM seems to be comming out strong in December. As can see on this one minute chart JPM placed a double bottom pattern, which helped it run from 2:30 EST into the close of the day. Close up on the day for a gain of +2. Charts are for daytrade and scapling at this point in time. All cash or trade in and out days are here to stay. Companies are in the process of cutting and trim for the holidays. So, I would be careful in considering this a Holiday or Christmas rally.

Also, for some reason the options symbols have changed for JPM to JSA. So make sure you go to http://www.cboe.com/ for the current symbols and strike prices for your stock.

Sunday, November 30, 2008


This a screen shot of JP Morgan; the holiday run for the stock has been good. Financials have been suffering of late. However, the automakers have taken most of the pressure/focus off with a 2nd helping of a bailout from the government to Citigroup, 3rds anyone.

I believe JPM is one; if not the most strongest of the financials. Citigroup = C is a poster child for the financials. There is no one too big to fail.

December is a time for selling to write-off the years losses and for the Big Guys to do distributions and make everything look nice. We will see in the next couple of trading weeks.

30.00 JPMLF.X Calls Dec 3.64 C 2,819 V 23,925 OI
32.50 JPMLZ.X Calls Dec 2.04 C 1,695 V 15,902 OI

27.50 JPMXT.X Puts 1.39 C 1,079 V 18,529 OI
30.00 JPMXF.X Puts 2.00 C 2,668 V 61,647 OI

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Trader System

This strategy is originally created and has been changed to adept to the current market direction. This has been tested for trading all Securities, Commodities and Futures. I like the way it define market motion.

It’s quite simple, what you need is 50 SMA, 35 EMA and 20 EMA attached on your 5M Chart. Open position when the angle of the 50 Simple moving average are greater than 20 degrees and the price retrace back into the zone of the 35 Exponential moving average and the 20 Exponential moving average.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Good Example of Avoiding Day Trader Status

Due to an overwhelming request of questions about Day Trader Status I have decided to write this newsletter to look at these issues. Whether you know about it or not, you don't want to accidentally learn about Day Trader Status by a notice from your brokerage firm saying that you are now tagged as a Day Trader!

WHAT IS A DAY TRADER?

A Day Trader is someone who does four intra-day trades in five consecutive trading days. Let me address some terms here to help you understand this better:

Intra-day trade: A trade that is opened and closed in the same trading day (round trip).

Five Consecutive Trading Days: These are calendar days that the market is open, all in a row. For example:

If the market was open on Monday through Friday that would be five consecutive days.

Then we would have Tuesday through Monday for the next five consecutive days (unless Monday was a holiday in which case it would then be Tuesday through Tuesday.

Next, we would have Wednesday through Tuesday, and so on. The key is five trading days in a row.


HOW TO AVOID IT

One of my favorite students, Debi D, taught me to use a calendar to record my intra-day trades. By placing an "X" on the day

you do intra-day trades, (2 X's if you do two, 3 X's if you do 3 in that day) you can avoid accidentally getting to four by

looking at your calendar. Make sure you mark the days the market is closed on your calendar.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

I thought it mattered a lot, but after my research for this newsletter, it appears there actually are some great benefits

being classified as a "Day Trader" if the $25,000 is not an issue for you. Basically there are two issues at hand:

ISSUE ONE: Your brokerage firm will likely impose the NASD requirements of maintaining at least $25,000 in your trading

account - and you have 5 days to comply. If you have this kind of money there is no issue! However, if you are starting out

with limited funds to trade it could be a big issue! One important note - always ask for one time of forgiveness! Many

students told me they did and the status was removed - so ASK! There may be a way around it, but I am not sure. From my

reading of the requirements, the penalty for not complying is that you are subject to cash only trades, (which are what we

were doing anyway with options)!

There is a really incredible benefit though if you are tagged a Day Trader and maintain the $25,000 minimum value in

your account. You may be eligible for day-trading margin, which is 4 times account buying power. WOW DO I EVER LIKE THIS

ONE!! This buying power may only be used intra-day and may not be held past market close. Orders exceeding Day-Trading Buying

Power will be rejected.

ISSUE TWO: Tax Consequences with the IRS

Actually upon my research into the IRS Publications it does not appear as bad as I thought. A tax firm specializing in trading activity, says:
o They allow a full deduction of all trading losses in the year they occur, thereby circumventing the historical $3,000 net capital loss rule.
o They allow full current expensing of trading expenses without limitation, thereby circumventing the limitation on miscellaneous itemized deductions.
o They enable the active trader to still take advantage of the beneficial long term capital gain rules.

o They enable the active trader to circumvent the restrictive "Wash Sale" rules normally applied to investors, thereby alleviating a huge record-keeping nightmare.

o They allow the active trader to deduct losses on open as well as closed positions.

Continuing on with my IRS research:

You would report your trader's activity as a business on Schedule C of your 1040, possibly allowing all the deductions for your classes and tools, versus a limitation on deduction for passive trading that would have had to be reported on your

Schedule A with a 2% AGI limitation deduction. But here is the sweet deal: you can still elect to report your gain or loss on

Schedule D as a capital gain unless you made the mark-to-market election, (which has you claim the income as ordinary income on Form 4797 instead of Schedule D - see IRS Publication 550 for more information on this). Just to be safe, you better talk to an accountant that specializes in stock market trading. Being a retired accountant, I want to tell you that most accountants will not know how to treat your trading income properly - you need to understand this.

The proper classification of your investment activities is important to determine how income and expenses are to be reported.

Traders that buy and sell securities frequently can report their purchases and sales result in capital gain and loss, and their deductible expenses are trade or business expenses.

Happy Trading!

Darlene Powell with Better Trades

Sunday, September 28, 2008

My Tools

These are my current tools I use in my trading.

1. I pefer to use two Candlestick charts with the 1 min and 5 min.

2. Technical indicators are the MA 8,20,35, the RSI at 2 and a stoch at 5,3.

PDT - Pattern Day Trader

For some of us that do not have the $25k to trade everyday. We are only allowed to complete 3 trade out of a 5 day week. If you trade more than this your account will be labeled as a PDT. A day trade consists of opening and closing the same position the same day. More than three such in five days constitutes pattern day trading: i.e., four day trades in five days. So, if on Monday you place a buy order for, say, AAPL at 9AM, another buy order for AAPL at 10AM, and another buy order for AAPL at 11AM, then sell the whole bunch at noon, you have three day trades. So, if you make another day trade on Friday, you will be flagged as a pattern day trader. Likewise, if you do one day trade on Monday, one on Tuesday, and one on Wednesday, then do another on Friday, you will be flagged as a pattern day trader.

As a practical matter, daytrading in a cash account is difficult to accomplish. This is due to the application of two related rules known as "good faith" and "freeriding" requirements. These rules are not part of the PDT rules and stand on their own. In summary, vastly oversimplified, these rules require that you have all the money you need to settle trades in a cash account available even if the stock is sold before settlement. Moreover, and herein lies the rub, the good faith issue arises when the stock is sold prior to settlement even if the customer funds the trade subsequent to sale but prior to settlement. The freeriding provisions kick in whenever funds are not available on the settlement date. There are numerous discussions of their application on the internet. Reading some of the examples that are provided will likely cause a person to realize that compliance might be more trouble than it is worth.