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The charts provided here are not meant for investment purpose(s) and only serve as technical examples. Trader Disclosure: See below for our Legal / Disclaimer.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

SWN - STRADDLE MAR 33 C/P



















THE BIG PICTURE: Southwestern Energy has less incentive to spend money on its gas drilling operations this year as the price of natural gas continues to linger around 10-year lows. Just a few years ago, natural gas was one of the pricier sources of energy. But producers have brought up huge amounts of gas from shale deposits, filling the nation's storage facilities nearly to overflowing and pushing down prices.

So companies like Southwestern Energy make less on the open market and hesitate to spend more on producing gas.

THE ANALYSIS: Southwestern Energy dropped its 2012 production forecast to surprisingly low levels. Analyst Coleman said in a note to clients that he had thought the company would produce 577 billion cubic feet during the year. With the lower outlook, he cut his 2012 earnings forecast by 7 percent to $1.23 per share. He rated the company "Market Perform."

SHARE ACTION: Southwestern shares fell $2.45, or nearly 7 percent, to $32.88 in afternoon trading. The stock has ranged between $28.37 and $49.25 in the past 52 weeks.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Saturday, February 25, 2012

The General Food Chain on Wall Street Traders: Prime Trader, Proprietary Trader and the Retail Trader

The definitions overlap ever so slightly and people use the phrases interchangeably. But, there are reasons I think these three main trading roles get confused, but one thing stands out is that clearly in all these types of trading is they all have exposure to P/L. Nothing speaks as loudly as your account statements and a summary of your P/L metrics (number of winning/losing trades; average size of winners/losers; breakdowns by long and short trades; etc.)


First let's review terminology: A proprietary trading group is a group of traders that trades the capital of the firm. The firm puts up the trading capital and provides risk management, computer (IT) support, office space, and brokerage arrangements. A proprietary group typically generates its income from a split of trading profits, as well as by charging fees for overhead ("desk fees") and commissions. Meaning: “Most prop traders have little administrative, operational, or business management experience. They’ve had the institutional framework of a bank at their beck and call, as well as generous, but tightly controlled, access to capital.”


Also, the difference is that in proprietary trading it is the purpose of the business (you have an idea, you risk the firms capital on it), and also, prop desks often trade multiple products. Vs principal trading, where exposure is a primarily a byproduct of the business (you can't take the other side of a clients trades to earn a spread w/o having exposure - however temporarily) but is also an option for the business (trader liking the market and choosing to be net long his product) -- with this later part being very much like prop trading, except limited to the specific product expertise of the trader.


This is in contrast with a trading arcade, which office space, computer support, and brokerage, but does not provide trading capital. It is a group environment for trading your own money. An arcade often acts as broker and makes its money from fees and commissions, but--because the trader is trading his/her own capital--does not typically take a large share of trading profits.


The retail trader rather than trade sitting alone in an office or at home in their pajamas, a growing number are choosing to work in electronic trading “arcades” or “prop shops” (trading firms that pay them a salary and a slice of profits) offering computers, real-time news streams and the company of other traders, even if they are competitors.


Technically speaking, a proprietary trader's primary purpose (99%) is to seek profit potential for the firms account INDEPENDENTLY of the commission/spread based trading that defines the flow and main focus of principal traders (75+%). That is, their profits and positions are driven by the success of proprietary trade ideas/models and NOT by arbitrage and re-positioning around client driven trade execution.


Prime/Principal/Agency Trading: You simply execute orders for the client – you’re merely an “agent” doing what he/she wants and do not have (much) freedom.

Prop/Retail Trading: You are the principal and can make whatever trades you want, using your own money – within your trading mandate and risk limits.

This is is a very good link on Proprietary Trading and Retail Brokers, What Every Trader Should Know.


What is the Volcker Rule?

The so-called “Volcker Rule”, designed to curb risk-taking by US investment banks, has resulted in many firms scaling back their proprietary trading activities.

When pressed by US Congress to define proprietary trading, Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that “every banker” he speaks with “knows very well what ‘proprietary trading’ means”.

Volcker, speaking before Congress in February, was reinforcing his calls to ban commercial banks from running proprietary trading operations and restrict them from owning or investing in hedge funds or private equity funds. His proposals form part of the Dodd-Frank Act - Cheat Sheet and Summary of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reformand Consumer Protection Act, Enacted into Law on July 21, 2010 that is working its way through Congress.

The proposals are vague, according to Thomas Pax, a partner and head of the US regulatory practice at law firm Clifford Chance. He said: “We haven’t heard how proprietary trading is actually going to be defined in the Volcker Rule. The definition of proprietary trading leaves an awful lot to be desired.”

It could be four years before the provisions come fully into play, according to Pax. But what is clear, he said, is that banks will not be allowed to invest more than 3% of their tier one capital in hedge funds or private equity funds. Some of the prop traders hitting the marketplace are being picked up by other firms: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the US buyout firm, hired nine members of Goldman’s US principal strategies team, led by Bob Howard. Many others are, like Flamand, setting up on their own.

Dodd-Frank in One Graph

Securities 56 Testing

A new regulatory exam is hanging over the heads of market makers, proprietary traders and floor brokers called the Series 56, also known as the Proprietary Trader Exam. The exam tests traders’ knowledge of the securities markets, trading and reporting practices, investment strategies and anti-fraud provisions as they pertain to the proprietary trading role.

Proprietary TradersQualification ExaminationContent Outline and Securities 56 - Cheat Sheet

Conclusion

Trading” is a nebulous term. These are the extremes – no choice, and 100% choice. In between is a generic area termed flow trading where there’s some element of Prime/Principal/Agency trading but also some Prop/Retail trading involved.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Earnings Call


AAPL Straddle Into Board of Directors Meeting






















  • Tuesday 9:17 AM As expected, #3 Chinese carrier China Telecom (CHA) announces it will begin selling the iPhone 4S. Until now, #2 China Unicom (CHU) had been the only Chinese carrier authorized to sell the iPhone. China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest carrier, could strike a deal after Apple (AAPL) introduces the iPhone 5, which might support China Mobile's nascent 4G LTE network.
  • Saturday 5:39 AM The WSJ's report that Google (GOOG) circumvented the privacy settings of people who used Apple's (AAPL) Safari browser has caught the attention of Congress, with three House members on Friday calling on the FTC to probe Google, and the Senate Commerce Committee's Jay Rockefeller planning to look into the firm's behavior.
  • Friday 6:16 PM The ITC has officially closed the books on an HTC patent infringement complaint against Apple (AAPL), after ruling against the complaint in November. But patent lawyers have no need to worry, there are plenty of other suits (I, II) between Apple and HTC to litigate.
  • Friday 4:40 PM The Fair Labor Association's inspection of Apple (AAPL) contract manufacturer Foxconn's facilities has turned up "tons of issues," reports Bloomberg, following a talk with FLA head Auret van Heerden. Van Heerden adds there will be "some very significant announcements in the near future" related to the FLA's findings.
  • Friday 12:24 PM A company representing Proview's creditors is planning to sue Apple (AAPL) for $2B in the U.S. over the iPad trademark. At a Beijing press conference, Li Su - chairman of the creditor group - says it's in the process of choosing representation from among 3 U.S. law firms.

  • Friday 11:59 AM Quick take on Apple/China: Given how the 4S' arrival provided a huge lift to Apple's U.S. share, the Q4 share decline might prove a mere speedbump. However, the iPhone is facing growing competition from cheaper Android models in China, where most phones are bought unsubsidized and per capita GDP is still below $5,500. Signing up new carrier partners (I, II) could give Apple a lift. Friday 11:58 AM Ahead of its Chinese iPhone 4S launch, Apple's (AAPL) share of China's smartphone market fell to a mere 7.5% in Q4, down 290 bps Q/Q. Samsung (SSNLF.PK) claimed 24.3% of the market, while Nokia (NOK) saw its Chinese share cut by more than half, to below 20%. Local vendor ZTE (ZTCOY.PK) saw its share surge to 11% on the back of its.

Friday, February 17, 2012

NYSE and NASDAQ = OptionEx Profits












Market's are on Friday looking like, what "M". This is not a solicitation or recommendation of securities, they are for educational purposes.

BIDU - After Earnings Release

AAPL - Straddle Into AAPL Shareholder Meeting
































$AAPL Annual Meeting Proxy Card - appears has not been updated, How many will vote Steven P. Jobs? http://stks.co/2THi

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

EcoNews Feb 13 - Feb 17

ANF - After Earnings Release















11:31 AM Jefferies weighs in on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +12.5%), saying its 4Q was awful, but it really doesn't matter. What matters now is that 2012 expectations are low, the long term growth strategy is on track, its cash flow and balance sheet are robust, and the current risk/reward for this stock is extremely favorable. The company is well positioned for the new year with the right strategy, brand and ability to execute.

8:57 AM Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) trade 5.4% higher premarket after the firm misses the EPS estimate of analysts with its Q4 report. Investors are looking forward at the moment - latching on to the firm's FY12 guidance for EPS to fall in at $3.50-$3.75, well-above the consensus mark of $3.47.

7:15 AM Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Q4 EPS of $1.12 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $1.33B (+15.7% Y/Y) in-line. (PR)

AAPL















AAPL shaved off another $4 in After Hours trading, there are rumor on the stock that some has take seriously to exit in big position in the stock.

  • 5:55 PM Meet Edward Zabitsky, the lone remaining Apple (AAPL) heretic analyst who still rates the stock a Sell - and he's not backing off. iPhone prices may decline as Apple takes steps to compete with Android and Windows phones, he predicts, sending gross margins on the device down 25% from 50%-plus. “If a price war breaks out in Android phones, Samsung (SSNLF.PK) wins hands down."
  • 5:35 PM A Citigroup analyst is skeptical that the Nasdaq index could be rebalanced to blunt Apple's (AAPL) outsized influence. AAPL's market cap is still below the threshold limits to warrant any re-weighting: Its weight is now ~16.85%, less than the 24% limit, and the combined weight of stocks with individual weights above 4.5% is at 41.1%, below the 48% limit.
  • 1:26 PM Perhaps having something to do with the move in Apple (AAPL) is chatter the Nasdaq could be rebalanced to cut the stock's influence. When this occurred in April 2011, Apple sold off (before taking flight again). There's also word Amazon China has pulled the iPad2 from sale due to the Proview trademark suit.
  • 12:54 PM There's panic in the pits as the bottom drops out of Apple (AAPL -0.2%), the stock giving up a 3% session gain and now showing a rare red print. Not surprisingly, it has pulled the major indices down to session lows. DJIA -0.5%, Nasdaq +0.2%

Earnings Call

Click to Enlarge image:

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Option Scan

Notable options preview before open: TAL CLR UA MHS BG ADS SRCL HUM NXPI WLL

Notable options on the hour: FOSL RAX NFLX SHOO CLR MDAS V GLNG IMAX WPI ESRX


Market recap:

4:00 PM At the close: Dow -0.05% to 12868. S&P -0.13% to 1350. Nasdaq +0.02% to 2932.
Treasurys: 30-year +0.44%. 10-yr +0.14%. 5-yr +0.04%.
Commodities: Crude +0.17% to $101.47. Gold -0.21% to $1721.35.
Currencies: Euro -0.54% vs. dollar. Yen +1.14%. Pound +0.55%.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

AAPL - Lot Closed Out

















AAPL held up pretty well, for market tankola on Greece News again and with the S&P downgrading 34 Italian Banks out of 37. Monday should a good time to reload before the Feb 23, 2012 "shareholder meeting".

Friday 4:03 PM According to AppleInsider, Apple's (AAPL) next-gen MacBook Pros will look much like the MacBook Air - a unibody frame, no optical drives, and the use of flash memory for storage instead of hard drives.

4:00 PM At the close: Dow -0.62% to 12811. S&P -0.69% to 1343. Nasdaq -0.80% to 2904.
Treasurys: 30-year +0.75%. 10-yr +0.37%. 5-yr +0.15%.
Commodities: Crude -0.87% to $98.97. Gold -1.03% to $1723.35.
Currencies: Euro -0.86% vs. dollar. Yen -0.04%. Pound +0.51%.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

AAPL - New Product Release Run


































  • 1:44 PM AAPL by the numbers: In another tip of the hat to the world's largest company by market cap, The NY Times's David Leonhardt crunches the numbers to find that Apple's (AAPL) total market value is now higher than that of Google, Goldman Sachs, GM, Ford, Starbucks and Boeing combined.
  • 11:19 AM There's Apple (AAPL), and there's everything else. In a slightly red S&P 500, Apple's stock stands out (nearly) alone as a big gainer, +3.5%.
  • 9:30 AM Apple's (AAPL) price target is upped to $665 at Cannacord, which cites monthly channel checks indicating "very strong sales trends" for the iPhone 4S at all three U.S. carriers and overall strong iPhone sales in international markets. The firm increases its March quarter iPhone estimates to 32.6M units from 30.1M.
  • 9:21 AM Apple (AAPL) plans to announce the launch of the iPad 3 in the first week of March, according to All Things Digital. Sources say the much-discussed next-generation iPad will feature a faster chip, improved graphics, and a retina display - falling in line with previous reports on the new device. Shares of AAPL +0.9% premarket.
  • 8:18 AM Samsung (SSNLF.PK) notches up another victory in its world patent war with Apple (AAPL), as a German court backs a preliminary assessment that the Korean company's reworked Galaxy 10.1 isn't a copycat iPad. Samsung altered the design of the device to bypass a sales ban imposed in September.

Monday, February 6, 2012

AAPL
































  • 5:39 PM Adam Lashinsky, whose recent book on Apple (AAPL) made plenty of waves (I, II), thinks the world's most valuable company may soon finally pay a dividend. Lashinsky notes a UBS report claiming management "has been soliciting the opinions of large shareholders" on the matter, as well as Tim Cook's FQ1 earnings call remarks about Apple "actively discussing uses" for its $97B+ in cash and investments.
  • 5:25 PM Motorola Mobility (MMI) reportedly has asked Apple (AAPL) to pay a 2.25% royalty on sales of some iPhones last year, representing potentially billions of dollars in licensing fees. An MMI letter from Oct. 2011 gives a glimpse into how much may be at stake in the ongoing patent struggles between mobile device makers.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

EcoNews - Feb 6 - Feb 10, 2012














Green is for Chairman Ben Bernanke.

AAPL - History In The Making















The purple line represent the AAPL MAR 460 Call and the AAPL MAR 455 Put. The History is in the 460 area of the stock, they have the cash and power, there hasn't been a stock split in awhile, so this is the time.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

WYNN - Rebounce - Swing MAR Options

































  • Friday 10:51 AM "We give credit to appropriate parties in appropriate amounts," says Steve Wynn on WYNN's earnings conference call, dismissing concerns a rise in receivables (18% Q/Q) has anything to do with deteriorating customer credit quality. "Credit and marketing are 2 separate subjects ... the alternative to that strategy is very disastrous."
  • Thursday 4:31 PM More on Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Q4 beats on a per share basis but comes up just shy on revenue. Profit increased 8.6% Y/Y driven by a 9.1% increase in revenues from its Macau Operations and a 7.2% increase from Las Vegas. The company also declared a $0.50 dividend payable on March 1.
  • Thursday 4:10 PM Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Q4 EPS of $1.55 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $1.34B (+9% Y/Y) misses by $19M.
  • Tuesday 4:40 PM Wynn Resorts (WYNN) may trail peers in its growth prospects since it’s being less aggressive in Cotai, the new Macau gambling hotspot, but it throws off lots of cash and offers a healthy dividend, CLSA writes. With Wynn’s “somewhat recurrent special dividend," its recent yield has been 5%-6%, more than enough for dividend-hungry investors.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

STX - Strangle

















Updated Chart for this company, markets ripped and than OptionEx took over.



















































  • Wednesday 9:58 AM Seagate (STX +15.8%) soars to levels not seen since 2007 after beating FQ2 estimates and guiding for strong 2012 growth. Helping matters is an upgrade to Buy from Stifel, which asserts Seagate is benefiting from "positive structural changes" in the hard drive industry, such as consolidation and slowing density growth, rather than just its relative immunity to Thailand's floods. WDC +5.1% in sympathy.
  • Tuesday 5:27 PM Seagate (STX) guides on its FQ2 earnings call (webcast) for FQ3 revenue to exceed $4.3B (consensus is for $4.34B). The company also expect FQ4 revenue to exceed $5B, and calendar 2012 sales to be
    roughly $20B.
  • Tuesday 4:17 PM Seagate Technology (STX): FQ2 EPS of $1.32 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $3.2B (+17.5% Y/Y) beats by $60M.