IF THE MOUNTAIN WILL NOT COME TO . . . , . . . WILL GO TO THE MOUNTAIN

"If one cannot get one's own way, one must adjust to the inevitable."

Things to Watch: In This Markets

10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m

8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change

8:30am USD Unemployment Rate

Sector Maps

The Specturm chart looks like Star Wars, light sabre show bad vs. good. The government's gross domestic product report showed that the economy fell at a -6.2 percent annual pace at the end of last year, a pace that was much faster than execpted. New CitiGroup Deal, the Prince? My Kingdom, My Kingdom . . .

Sector Maps

JPM Options Of The Day

Option Day Purchase: JPM Mar 20 Puts - JSAOD, for a decent profit (meaning no loss for the day). JPM had a nice range today of $2.25, HOD 21 to LOD 18.75 = Closing at 19.96. Stoch are starting to bottoming out, so this should be and considered as a warning. This is a crazy market and you should be small and take your profits when they are presented.

Account status as of end for Feb 20th:

Positions closed for Gain: JPM

Open Positions: None

Sectors and Maps

Tomorrow Number To Watch

8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
0.1%
0.0%

8:30am USD CPI m/m
0.2%
-0.8%

Scalping With Options

JPM - Mar 09 JSAOD 20P

Looking at the Daily chart our range has been broken for now, a window as been opened and the old range was 28 to 24 per share price. There should be a restesting of the lows 20 and 18 per share price! Charts were also a cool waterfall on the 5 min and 15 min. Looking for some more downside, but round number are the stall points and with GS not help in the fast down market. We would have like quicker in and out trades with this option. However, a profit(s) is a profit.

1:15pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks - Comments helped the sell-off in the financials; whewe. Also, Bank of New York - did not like the fact of a cap on bonuses, haha. Clarity is no more for the financials?!

Economic Releases For Feb 19

8:30am USD PPI m/m
0.2%
-1.9%

8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
620K
623K

8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
0.1%
0.2%

10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
-24.1
-24.3

10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m
0.0%
0.3%

10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
-47B
-159B

11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories
2.9M
4.7M

1:15pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall.
Thinking of a great stimulate package that had great flaws.
All the king's horses and all the king's men .
Couldn't put a Bipartisan Stimulate package together if they try, try, try, try, tried again.

Holiday Market Calendars

Frankfurt trading holidays 2009
At FWB Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Frankfurt Stock Exchange) there will be trading Mondays to Fridays in 2009, with the exception of 1 January, 10 April, 13 April, 1 May, 24 December, 25 December and 31 December. 24 and 31 December are settlement days.

Labels: calendar, holiday

Nordic trading holiday schedule 2009
Market closed
Half day trading
Copenhagen
1/1, 9-10/4, 13/4, 8/5, 21-22/5, 1/6, 5/6, 24-25/12, 31/12,
-
Stockholm
1/1, 6/1, 10/4, 13/4, 1/5, 21/5, 19/6, 24.-25/12, 31/12
5/1, 9/4, 30/4, 20/5, 30/10
Helsinki
1/1, 6/1, 10/4, 13/4, 1/5, 21/5, 19/6, 24-25/12, 31/12
-
Iceland
1/1, 9-10/4, 13/4, 23/4, 1/5, 21/5, 1/6, 17/6, 3/8, 24-25/12, 31/12

US stock market holidays 2009

2009
New Year's Day
January 1
Martin Luther King Day
January 19
Presidents' Day
February 16
Good Friday
April 10
Memorial Day
May 25
Independence Day
July 3 (observed)
Labor Day
September 7
Thanksgiving Day
November 26
Christmas
December 25


Japan stock market holidays 2009
2009
Jan. 1
New Year's Day
Jan. 12
Coming of Age Day
Feb. 11
National Foundation Day
Mar. 20
Vernal Equinox
Apr. 29
Showa Day
May 3
Constitution Memorial Day
May 4
Greenery Day
May 5
Children's Day
May 6
Holiday
Jul. 20
Marine Day
Sep. 21
Respect for the Aged Day
Sep. 22
Holiday
Sep. 23
Autumnal equinox
Oct. 12
Health and Sports Day
Nov. 3
Culture Day
Nov. 23
Labor Thanksgiving Day
Dec. 23
Emperor's Birthday

Hong Kong stock market holidays 2009
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Date
Holiday
Day
1 JAN
The first day of January
Thursday
26 JAN
Lunar New Year's Day
Monday
27 JAN
The second day of the Lunar New Year
Tuesday
28 JAN
The third day of the Lunar New Year
Wednesday
4 APR
Ching Ming Festival
Saturday
10 APR
Good Friday
Friday
11 APR
The day following Good Friday
Saturday
13 APR
Easter Monday
Monday
1 MAY
Labour Day
Friday
2 MAY
The Buddha's Birthday
Saturday
28 MAY
Tuen Ng Festival
Thursday
1 JUL
Hong Kong Adm. Region Estab. Day
Wednesday
1 OCT
National Day
Thursday
3 OCT
Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival
Saturday
26 OCT
Chung Yeung Festival
Monday
25 DEC
Christmas Day
Friday
26 DEC
The first weekday after Christmas Day
Saturday


Spain stock market holidays 2009

Spain stock market in 2009 is closed:
Thursday 1 January 2009 (New Year’s Day)
Friday 10 April 2009 (Good Friday)
Monday 13 April 2009 (Easter Monday)
Friday 1 May 2009 (Labour day)
Thursday 24 december 2009 (Christmas eve)
Friday 25 December 2009 (Christmas Day)
Thursday 31 december 2009Note:Information from Bolsa de Madrid

Trade The News - MicroTrading - 1 min Chart

This is a techinque designed for the trader that is likely to get in and out with a smaller profits, and is not able to trade for hours. Here is a great example of how you can use the 1 minute charts to trade the ecomonic news releases and general news releases. To find out when the world economic, earnings, downgrades, upgrades releases are, simply google it or scroll down the right side of this blog to the bottom for a list of websites or current week news releases that impact the markets. Using the 1 minute strategy along with the news, is an effective way of scapling profits on the markets.

**Tip: Remember to wait a mintue or two after the announcement. Don't open a position before the scheduled time!

**Tip: There are news releases all throughout the week during the different time zones and trading sessions. This techinque works well during premarket and after market sessions.

Attention:

Using the 1 mintue charts is fast moving. It might not be your style of trading. If you want to test out slower moving averages combinations that whipsaw less often on the 1 minute charts, you can try these:

7, 5 and 10 EMA

Detail :

- Wait for the 4 SMA to cross through the 21 EMA
- Wait for the Stochastics - If either the %K or %D fall below 20 and then starts to rise again above 20, this may be considered a buy sign. Similarly, a selling signal is thought to occur if the indicator rises above 80 and then begins to fall below 80.
- Remember to take small profits
- Practice this strategy on your demo account.

JPM and XLF Dailies

JPM is currently in a downtrend, even as it is one of the best in the Financial sector. It has been diffcult to trade it the last couple of days; as the market have been trending and waiting for all those Economic News, Congress Hearings. JPM trading range is at 28 to 24 per share. Friday was a attempt to sell the news, as we where all ready knowing that the House and Senate would passed the bill. It is now on the Presidential desk for signing. Also, with Monday beeing a market holiday there was no rally which normally happpens during upcoming holidays. 18 trading days left in the month of Feburary.

Range bound for the most part with all that is going on . . .

Sector Maps and Groups

Trading Habits Pt 2

1) Don't trade when the 4sma, 8sma and 20sma are really narrow. Wait for it to break out first.

2) Don't trade when the market is slow (like right now). You can trade at other times, but just make sure there are decent volatility / momentum.

3) Don't trade 30 minutes before or after news. If there's BIG news coming, it might not be good to trade for hours before because the market just stalls and goes nowhere (same problem as #2). This is because it's waiting for the news announcement. In this case, don't trade until after the news. Watch for News that is - High and Medium Profile.

4) Don't trade if you're up against a barrier. This includes the daily R1 R2 R3, daily S1 S2 S3, daily pivot, and weekly pivot. It's also good to look at the 15min 4sma, 8sma and 20sma to see if you're close to them as well. I also recommend treating the "00's" (239.00, 238.00, etc.) as barriers. I call them psychological barriers, and it's really just common sense. Just think about when you have a $100 bill. You're less likely to spend it. Once you finally decide to break the $100 bill, you'll usually spend your smaller bills much more quickly. This is just human nature, and well, the market is driven by human beings.

Instead of just thinking of the barriers as times not to trade, use them to your advantage. Wait for either a break through of the barrier or bounce off it. If it does this, you should still wait for the moving averages and your other indicators to give you a signal.

Limit Orders and Scalping Charts

This is a modified strategy for the active options trader. When we are buying calls or puts, we want to do so at the lowest levels possible. To help in doing this, we put in limit orders below the previous close or most recent last closing price and let those oversold or overbrought opportunities come to us when making high probability, short term trades in stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities. We like to have opportunities come to us, rather than chase them.

We are looking to buy the pulled back, our trading strategy is to use limit orders below the previous close or most recent last closing price. This gives us the opportunity for playing pull backs on an intraday basis, giving us an even lower priced entry into the position. It has been a valuable part of our overall approach to buying weakness and selling strength.

We use a 4-day moving average and wait for our stock to close above or below that 4-day moving average. Once it has done so, we exit at the market.

Once we have spotted our oversold stock, we look to use continued strength in the stock as an opportunity to take a position on the short side. This is the intraday strength that we talk about. In the same way that we look for intraday weakness to enter long positions, we look for intraday strength to enter short positions. By putting a sell limit order anywhere from 2% to 6% above the previous close, we allow stocks to "come to us" rather than chasing them. We've found this approach to work as well for buying strong stocks as it does for shorting weak stocks.

There are different options for short term traders following this trading strategy. If you place your limit order very close to the previous close or most recent last closing price, for example at 1-3% below that level, then you are likely to get more fills than if you placed your limit order farther away. This will mean more trades and, relatively speaking a larger number of losing trades, as well.

If you place your limit order at a greater distance from the previous close or most recent last closing price, such as 4-6%, then you will get significantly fewer trades than if your limit order were closer. But those trades will likely be more profitable as you will only be trading the deepest pullbacks and the most oversold stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities.

Because we look to buy stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities after they have pulled back rather than after they have broken out to new highs, our approach to entering trades is different from that of many short term trading strategies. This approach does more than just get us into trades at the lowest possible levels. It also serves to keep us disciplined rather than emotional when it comes to taking trades.

If you want to be more active as a trader, use a tighter limit order. If you only want the biggest pullbacks and don't mind missing a few of the more modest gaining trades, then go ahead and use a limit order that is 4% or more below the stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities previous close or most recent last closing price.

One observation, with the sort of high probability, high win-rate trading opportunities that, the downside of using a tighter limit order that ostensibly increases trade frequency and potential losses is much less pronounced than it might be with other strategies with win rates closer to 50%. This is why having a strict entry rule, such as using limit order 2% to 6% below the stock's last close is so helpful. By the time an already oversold stock makes an additional 2-6% correction intraday, that stock is all more likely to have run out of willing sellers and that is the moment we are waiting for. So when looking to trade stocks, electronic traded fund, and commodities, be sure that you don't chase those trades. Put in your limit order below the previous close and let those oversold opportunities come to you.

Whichever approach you take should be based on your personality and trading preferences.

Money Management & Trading Habits

The more trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move. Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade it will be the better bet. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.

Always have a trading strategy . . . make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not Bloomberg or some statement from Brokers, Friends, Relatives, Analysts, etc.

Your charts are your path to guide your through the market waves. Everything what you need to know about the market is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from your charts. Specialize in one or two markets. Every single market has its own characteristic. No market are the same, very soon you will be able to read the market like a road map.

Stay away from the ranging markets.

Don’t try to chase every single market movement.

The more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.

Note: Remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.

The Trading Day

The intraday battle has many different time zones.

The market starts off like a 40 yard dash form 9:30 - 10:30 am est. Although the equities markets are open from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. EST, which is six and a half hours, there are not six and a half hours of solid opportunities. In fact, I believe there are usually one to two hours at best that provide tradeable opportunities during the day. It then proceeds to slow down but maintains a steady pace until 11:45 - 12:30 pm est. The markets then slow down into a sleep period which I call Dead Zone until 2:30 - 3:00pm est for the final dash into the close. This is how the market pretty much paces itself every day.

This can be hard for many traders to swallow but if you go back and review your trades, in most cases, the profits usually come in the first and last hour. The losses usually come in the form of head fakes and stops from the four hours between 11 a.m. to 3 p.m., which is also referred to as the deadzone.

The "intraday fertile trading environment" is the opening hour from 9:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (give or take 30 minutes). As a caveat, it’s best for less experienced traders to start at 9:45 a.m. after the opening chop slows a bit as the moving averages firm up. This is where the most volume, immediate followthrough and trending will take place. This is where you can make a trade and reverse it and still make profits on the overall trade because the volume is there. You can’t do this when the volume slows down in the valley period from 11-3pm (give or take 30mins). There will obviously be exceptions but keep in mind that they are just exceptions.

Pre-market
7:30 a.m. to 8:00 a.m.Mostly the big players play the markets, like institutions, specialists, and market makers. The trades executed in this time zone create gaps from yesterday’s closing prices.

8:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.The big players still have control, but some small players start to battle with the opening of Archipelago, Island, and other Electronic Communications Networks. Some traders have brokers who do not allow access to trade until 8:00 a.m.

Market open
9:30 a.m. to 10:05 a.m.The market officially opens. This is the fastest time of the day. The market makers and specialists battle with market orders from institutions, as well as small players. The volume is the heaviest and reversals can happen very quickly.

10:30 a.m.Another possible reversal zone.

11:15 a.m.Volume dries up as the market makers and specialists go for lunch.

11:15 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.Stocks tend to run out of steam and pull back to support/resistance areas. Any breakout patterns are not reliable because the big players leave for lunch and control goes to the second-in-command who does not have the power to go into full battle. He is only allowed to deal with small orders while his boss is at lunch.

12:30 p.m. to 1:00 p.m.Volume is still light and 1:00 p.m. is a possible reversal area.

1:30 p.m.Possible reversal area.

1:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m.A continuing trend or sideways movement on low volume.

2:15 p.m.Big players come back from lunch and volume picks up.

2:30 p.m.Reversal area. An important reversal time because the big players have returned from lunch and execute larger orders. Volume noticeably picks up momentum.

3:00 p.m.Reversal area. Another important reversal time because the bond market closes.

3:30 p.m.Yet another major reversal zone. Profits from morning positions may be taken off the table, changing the direction of the trend.

4:00 p.m.The market closes. Note that you should close any positions you do not wish to hold overnight before 3:50 p.m. The last ten minutes of trading can be whippy on strong volume and does not give a clear picture of any trend. Traders who are not holding positions overnight are closing out their trades, and overnight traders are placing their bets for gap plays the following morning.

Post-market
4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.Stocks can be active if news derived from earnings reports is released during this time, as well as any other non-earnings news.

How To Use StockFetcher

Earning Calendar

Feb 09
VOD BCS L LO AU KUB SAN NYX

Feb 10
DTV UBS AMAT OMC TAP VFC EXPD CSC

Group Sector - 1 Day

S&P 500, World And EFT Maps

Market Action

All we can say is what a ride we had today in the markets. We were not convince of the market moves in the pre-market action; as the Job numbers were worry some, but Feb 4 let the air out of the number and the number will get worst as we go along. The market was passed the Job Numbers and started to look foward to the Stim Package to be release on Monday. GS did not act right at all on Feb 5; it did not partake in the market moves. We were look for opportunties are the came along. Feb 6; we played small ball (small trades) in and out (scalping). . . Monday should a good one again to the downside (sell the news) we will see and possibly some continutation on Friday's move for the most part. . .?!

GS +4.20%
JPM +12.63%

Closing Dow and Nasdaq Numbers

DJIA 8,280 +217.52
NASDAQ 1,591 +45.47